Predictions for 2024

Predictions for 20243 min read

Agents will arrive

You are going to be able to wake up, get your news from an AI asnd give it specific jobs to do, like book a haircut.

Watermarking AI won't work

There is this idea that we should know what is AI and what is not. But that is what we wish to happen, and all the incentives are aligned to making it not happen. Watermarking won't work, for both images and text. We are going to zoom right past the uncany valley, and what will be important for truth is where the image comes from. Perhaps this is where journalism can make a comeback, when you can no longer trust anything you see on social media, places like the economist and the guardian have the opportunity to again become the arbiters of truth.

Seperately though, people are going to have to make peace with the fact deepfakes exist. You're going to be able to take a single picture of someone, and it will be able to turn into full porn. I wish this didn't exist, but that is the reality and we aren't going to be able to stop it. People who think they can legislate against this, don't understand how it works; you can write your own neural network that can do this on a Macbook Pro, and let it run for a few hours. There will be sites hosted in Vietnam that you pay a few dollars to and they do it off Instagram posts.

It will be interesting to see what happens to Instagram and OnlyFans because of this; either it kills them or the authenticity they represent drives them to even greater revenues.

Robots are mainly a hardware problem

With all the AI improvements, it would have been easy to miss the robot revolution that is currently happening.

The world wakes up to VR

I've said this for a while, but people are sleeping on VR.

I've had the Meta Quest for a few years now, and I've shown it to a lot of different people who's first instincts is always "this is wild".

The problem VR currently has is two-fold; It's heavy, it's isolating for couples/families, and people are lazy and don't want to move about so much.

Social in VR is huge; as people move away from your families, being able to play a game with a mate who lives half a planet away is huge.

Apple's investment will be the first time a lot of people experience VR, and they will kill the presentation and what's better, is this like the headset of 3 generations from now.

They aren't expecting you to buy it, they are expecting you to buy the one in 3 years time. And even more important, to get developers starting to build those games today.

Maybe Meta benefits from people not wanting to wait, but hard not think it's Apple's to lose.

It's incredibly hard to explain VR. You really have to experience it; If I was meta I would have spent the last five years opening stalls in shopping centres and letting people try it out. It's a hard sell, but once you try it, you get it.

1. Hook to catch attention

Maybe a short sentence or a provocative sentence.

2. Personal Story

A personal anecdote or story to explain your point.

3. The meat

Get across the point you are making.

4. Last Thoughts

Wrap up what you are saying.

What next?

I've spent the last year perfecting over 1000+ prompts for GPT-4 in everything from engineering to art to sales. You can get a copy for free by joining my community.

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Alex Hughes © 2024